tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24415034.post5953234422880038228..comments2024-03-18T10:19:55.782-04:00Comments on The Velo ORANGE Blog: IceVelo Orangehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02835615331417822722noreply@blogger.comBlogger34125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24415034.post-71707228784202426242007-09-15T11:54:00.000-04:002007-09-15T11:54:00.000-04:00I am fairly surprised that no one had taken a broa...I am fairly surprised that no one had taken a broader view of this whole global warming picture. In my mind, global warming is entirely entwined with the dwindling global fossil fuel stocks that many had postulated, and this link may have more severe consequences than many are willing to discuss. I’ll elaborate.<BR/><BR/>Based on current understanding, the driving force behind global warming is the production of excess amounts of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels. The carbon from fossil fuel essentially came from the atmosphere of primordial earth as the photosynthetic plants basically captured atmospheric carbon dioxide, and fixed the carbon with water to produce oxygen and carbohydrates. The carbohydrates either got eaten by the prehistoric animals or stayed with the plants. Either way, when the animal or plant died and got converted to fossil fuel, the carbon was trapped. Essentially, fossil fuel is a storage mechanism for carbon. <BR/><BR/>According to our most current understanding of primordial earth, the atmosphere at that time had a much higher level of carbon dioxide. If we start burning all this stored carbon, our atmosphere will trend towards the atmosphere of primordial earth because the carbon is converted from one form to another and is not simply lost. Another way to look at it is that the atmospheric carbon dioxide level (as compared to primordial levels) is an indicator of how much fossil fuel we have left. Accordingly, our current situation is consistent with dwindling global fossil fuel stocks.<BR/><BR/>That is pretty bad news. Fossil fuels offer humanity a very cheap and convenient energy source. Without fossil fuels, we will probably end up like the Amish. There is nothing wrong with the Amish, and they do make great looking and functional bicycle baskets (!), but I would postulate that most of the population of industrialized countries would have a hard time giving up our conveniences. Regardless, the fact is that we will probably achieve much less without the help of fossil fuels.<BR/><BR/>So now, we have a situation that requires a lot of work to mitigate, and we are stuck with no cheap and convenient energy to help us with that goal. Quick! Someone invent cold fusion!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24415034.post-73340956962468691412007-09-12T15:45:00.000-04:002007-09-12T15:45:00.000-04:00Chris,I agree that global warming is happening and...Chris,<BR/>I agree that global warming is happening and almost certainly influenced by human activity on earth, but I don't know that it's helpful to discount "conservative" scientists. You've politicized the issue right there.<BR/><BR/>My hair start to stand on end when claims to "truth" in complex scientific matters are bandied about. I'm not a scientist and I don't pretend to know the technical arguments involved, much less be able to assess them, but I do think it's better to think in terms of hypotheses and data, rather than say a phenomenon is as obvious as the world is round.<BR/>I do know my way around a well-reasoned argument, though, and I think you do yours a disservice by making such statements.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24415034.post-67423309095214512562007-09-12T08:50:00.000-04:002007-09-12T08:50:00.000-04:00All of this is why I keep a bike called the "Armag...All of this is why I keep a bike called the "Armaggedon Bike," 'cause when it comes, that's what I'll be riding. <BR/><BR/>Did anyone else find it amusing that in the Washington Post a week ago, DC's evaculation plan identifies several bike paths as official routes for bike/ped traffic during an emergency?Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13601092971406547119noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24415034.post-30672674032845837882007-09-11T15:08:00.000-04:002007-09-11T15:08:00.000-04:00Climate versus weather: We can predict the average...Climate versus weather: We can predict the average hight of waves at the beach today, but we can't say how big the next set will be. (If we could, the surfers would know exactly when to paddle out instead of sitting on their boards all afternoon.)<BR/><BR/>M. King Hubbert, the inventor of peak oil theory, did not say we would be out now, nor did most respected researchers. Please look it up! What happened was the North Sea Field, but there is very good reason to believe that that is the last mega field on Earth. Of course there are many tiny untapped reserves, but even a large one, like in the Arctic Reserve will only contains an 11 month supply of oil at current US usage. The giant "elephant" fields, as in the Middle East, contained thousands of times as much oil as the Arctic field, and every square mile of the planet has already been scoured for those.Velo Orangehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02835615331417822722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24415034.post-88619448742615479092007-09-11T14:17:00.000-04:002007-09-11T14:17:00.000-04:00No.Climate is an energy balance over time.No.<BR/><BR/>Climate is an energy balance over time.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24415034.post-20109243066290220182007-09-11T14:02:00.000-04:002007-09-11T14:02:00.000-04:00...and the definition of climate is how weather ac......and the definition of climate is how weather acts in a particular area over time...SO the definition of one is inexorably tied to the other...and the question remains unanswered....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24415034.post-49663521387176142782007-09-11T13:05:00.000-04:002007-09-11T13:05:00.000-04:00"Question...If the local weather bureau- with all ..."Question...If the local weather bureau- with all of its "scientific" models and gadgetry- can't get the 24-48 hour weather forecast right [snip] how are any of us supposed to take seriously their predictions of the cataclysmic events...?"<BR/><BR/>Because weather is not climate, ya doof.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24415034.post-55980158650951285902007-09-11T12:15:00.000-04:002007-09-11T12:15:00.000-04:00Am I the only one old enough to remember 30 years ...Am I the only one old enough to remember 30 years ago when "Scientist" were predicting we would run out of oil by this time, and that we were heading for another ice age? <BR/><BR/>Am I also the only one that read about the Scientist that notes the ice capes on Mars are melting at the same rate as ours? <BR/><BR/>Of course we should tread lightly on our fine planet, but don't forget many many people make a living from "global warming".Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24415034.post-47518375844644942482007-09-11T11:40:00.000-04:002007-09-11T11:40:00.000-04:00Question...If the local weather bureau- with all o...Question...If the local weather bureau- with all of its "scientific" models and gadgetry- can't get the 24-48 hour weather forecast right, much less a forecast for a hurricane season (the last two have been WAY off), how are any of us supposed to take seriously their predictions of the cataclysmic events that are supposed to result from global warming 25-100 years down the road?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24415034.post-76773272264743895252007-09-11T11:09:00.000-04:002007-09-11T11:09:00.000-04:00It's time to raise the Black Flag, take back the s...It's time to raise the Black Flag, take back the streets. When bicycles and pedestrians move faster than cars, more people will take the train or ride or walk. <BR/><BR/>Wasn't it Ghandi who said: "Be the change you wish to see in the world"?<BR/><BR/>Live as an example. Give up your car and suggest others do the same. Fight the "Death before inconvenience" culture we have built. Try taking your bicycle through the Drive-thru at the bank, Starbucks, etc. Check out the reaction of the car drivers behind you. <BR/><BR/>Politicians won't solve these problems before calamity hits. You only need look at Social Security, Hurricane Katrina, AIDS, Meth-Amphetamine Addiction, regulation of cigarettes & alcohol, bridge collapses, and terrorism.<BR/><BR/>It will take the loss of luxury properties in Malibu or Palm Beach or oil riggs in the gulf to get things changed by government. Meanwhile the media is picking up on the economic benefits created under different scenarios (new trade routes, expanded real estate development to make up for lost housing).<BR/><BR/>BaxterAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24415034.post-62611143392839977672007-09-11T10:41:00.000-04:002007-09-11T10:41:00.000-04:00Chris,After a depressing post like this, I think y...Chris,<BR/>After a depressing post like this, I think you owe us some pretty pictures of bicycles...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24415034.post-73093400842435096032007-09-11T07:55:00.000-04:002007-09-11T07:55:00.000-04:00Oops, that URL is pretty ugly, it got chopped, thi...Oops, that URL is pretty ugly, it got chopped, this should work:<BR/><BR/>http://tinyurl.com/3dyusjRickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14737612355649780676noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24415034.post-37406619012182139202007-09-11T07:48:00.000-04:002007-09-11T07:48:00.000-04:00This looks bad. I wonder how many times humans ha...This looks bad. I wonder how many times humans have acted in their self-interest (never on the scale this requires, I daresay) when the evidence is not directly in their faces. Reading about melting glaciers and disappearing ice sheets sounds scary, but it is still somewhat of an abstraction, easy to put out of mind for many, when there are other more pressing day to day issues directly needing their attention.<BR/><BR/>But because we like a little opt ism, here's some encouraging news out of NYC for commuting cyclists: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/04/nyregion/04bicycle.html?ex=1346644800&en=867787578e1ca3a5&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalinkRickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14737612355649780676noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24415034.post-16011349726908631742007-09-10T18:46:00.000-04:002007-09-10T18:46:00.000-04:00Anonyme Scientist, The existence of global warming...Anonyme Scientist, The existence of global warming is not at all in dispute among those who have studied the issue. The counter argument is like denying that the earth is round, some may argue it, but the well informed do not take them seriously. <BR/><BR/>The question you address is better framed as "why some would dispute what the world of science has accepted?". Why indeed? The evidence shows that it is often a political appeal to the ignorant and a grab for quick profit at the expense of the common good.Velo Orangehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02835615331417822722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24415034.post-4396698856135064262007-09-10T18:25:00.000-04:002007-09-10T18:25:00.000-04:00If its not political, why are those with whom you ...If its not political, why are those with whom you disagree labeled "conservative"? As a scientist, I base my arguments for or against on the evidence presented. When the motivations are questioned rather than the results, you have hurt your argument. By the way, since I substantially agree with you on this, I find that your political arguments are hurting, rather than helping any chance to effect change. Just a thought. <BR/>ALAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24415034.post-80810530368144238412007-09-10T16:50:00.000-04:002007-09-10T16:50:00.000-04:00Cheers Chris for this post. I'll pour some Ricard...Cheers Chris for this post. I'll pour some Ricard and toast the bike culture. :)<BR/><BR/>Interestingly, wild swings in climate are more common in the known history of the world than they have been during the time humans have inhabited this planet. We know all of this because of ice cores in Antarctica and Greenland, and geologic core samples from all over the world. But in all of that data there is no evidence of a change that has happened as _fast_ as this one. What's next I wonder.K Matthiashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10302994067650991669noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24415034.post-29800711001806278632007-09-10T15:40:00.000-04:002007-09-10T15:40:00.000-04:00Well, since we're all agreed that representative d...Well, since we're all agreed that representative democracy and market forces are not going to come up with solutions to address the climate crisis, maybe all we are left with is individual action.<BR/><BR/>Outside my office window, a diesel delivery van has been idling for about 20 min. Later this afternoon, a squad of little men wielding gas powered leaf blower, weed wackers, and other implements of mass pollution will begin to manicure our lawn.mpetry912https://www.blogger.com/profile/02434530239246909594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24415034.post-57616309762315067172007-09-10T15:14:00.000-04:002007-09-10T15:14:00.000-04:00Let's not let this thread unravel. If we just thi...Let's not let this thread unravel. If we just think relly hard about it for a couple of more days I believe we can solve the problem. How about if we all ride bicycles most of the time and only drive our hybrids or Citroens (which are really just cleverly camoflaged hydrocarbon pumps)when we have to drive downtown to get our Starbucks. Sorry, scarey horrendous issues affecting my unborn grandchildren tends to bring out the worst in me.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24415034.post-36104082862000051872007-09-10T13:44:00.000-04:002007-09-10T13:44:00.000-04:00Without doubt, every little bit helps. From commu...Without doubt, every little bit helps. From commuters in Copenhagen to the joy of picking up groceries and riding home in the light of the setting sun here on Bainbridge Island, getting out of the car just feels like the right thing to do. Plus my actions get other people to start thinking differently about the car and the role it plays in our lives.<BR/><BR/>On another topic, the article Chris cites in the Independent mentioned that 932 permits had been issued for importing of Polar Bear pelts, exploiting a little known loophole in the import laws w/ Canada. <BR/><BR/>How sad. Check it out <BR/><BR/>http://environment.independent.co.uk/wildlife/article2944401.ecempetry912https://www.blogger.com/profile/02434530239246909594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24415034.post-69526912590061111082007-09-10T12:13:00.000-04:002007-09-10T12:13:00.000-04:00c,You're correct about your time frame, etc. Of co...c,<BR/>You're correct about your time frame, etc. Of course most of the time when there were no ice caps most of the life on earth had one cell. I guess I'm not prepared to let it slip quite that far if I can help it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24415034.post-25108008965820490312007-09-10T12:00:00.000-04:002007-09-10T12:00:00.000-04:00I don't doubt that humans are accelerating global ...I don't doubt that humans are accelerating global warming. At the same time I seem to recall from my geology class that for the majority of it's existence the Earth has not had two polar ice caps. If the northern ice melts naturally it's not necessarily a bad thing (except for us humans) What is bad is if we humans are accelerating that melting in an unnatural way which it seems pretty clear is the case. <BR/><BR/>I do think it's somewhat arrogant of us humans to think we can destroy the environment. I think this is total bull. We may render it uninhabitable for human life but give it a few million years (a blink of the eye in geological time) and it will recover quite nicely without us. We humans are just one teeny tiny species who have existed for a very, very tiny amount of time in the history of this great rock of ours.Chttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10767743759129493752noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24415034.post-30859056033426458882007-09-10T11:50:00.000-04:002007-09-10T11:50:00.000-04:00what each person does as an individual has a profo...what each person does as an individual has a profound impact on global warming. i have chosen not to drive motorized vehicles for anything except the need to transport heavy loads. this happens about 3-4 times a year. that's it. everything else happens by bicycle and trailer even if it takes 2-3 trips. <BR/><BR/>what i do encourages others to do the same. the bike path community is growing because of me- one individual.<BR/><BR/>by living my life this way i have gained immeasurably in my quality of living. my life has slowed down to a human pace. i enjoy my travels around town and magically no longer have a need to "get away." it's hard to describe- you have to start in your own way, bit by bit making determined choices to get away from the car. <BR/><BR/>what you do effects my life and every life on this planet. it's as simple as that. live a life of love for your own sake.Kathryn Hallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01544869635815546081noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24415034.post-30281342510774443342007-09-10T11:26:00.000-04:002007-09-10T11:26:00.000-04:00Agreed that greenhouse gases are to blame for clim...Agreed that greenhouse gases are to blame for climate change and the impact of humanity's profligate burning of petroleum fuels will dramatically affect our way of life.<BR/><BR/>While each of us can ride our bikes, boycott burgers, and so on, that leaves huge masses of humanity that are NOT doing so, continuing in the same ways that brought this problem on.<BR/><BR/>Agreed also that political systems and markets are probably not going to solve this problem. I'm not sure what would. What "knob" would we now turn. The course of events that is bringing about global warming was set in motion (probably) over 50 years ago, which is NOTHING in the course of global climactic events. I don't think there's anything humankind is likely to do that will much affect global warming. Worse, there may be some tipping points where (say) methane trapped in tundra will melt, with huge, non linear impact on the situation. <BR/><BR/>And yet, present economic and political structures (petroleum and auto industries, primarily) continue to lobby for drilling in the ANWR, while paying lip service to being "green". Current issue of the Atlantic actually has a full page ad from Chevy showing a kid hugging a tree, followed by a bunch of fluff about how green the new Suburban is. <BR/><BR/>Much more at http://dieoff.com/synopsis.htmmpetry912https://www.blogger.com/profile/02434530239246909594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24415034.post-27329021740195103202007-09-10T11:17:00.000-04:002007-09-10T11:17:00.000-04:00Global Warming, Al Qaeda, Drug Resistant TB, Pover...Global Warming, Al Qaeda, Drug Resistant TB, Poverty, Bottled Water, The Clintons and their Followers,Mitt Romney and his Cult, Recession, A Blind Eye to Genocide, Nuclear Proliferation, GW Bush, The Decline of Public Schools, Fat, Salt and Sugar, Big Tobacco, all these things are very scary...go for a bike ride.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24415034.post-18279112959237426792007-09-10T10:44:00.000-04:002007-09-10T10:44:00.000-04:00Anonyme, Pardon my French, but bull merde. I would...Anonyme, Pardon my French, but bull merde. I would challenge you to find a single non-partisan climate research institute (that is, one not funded by a conservative political group) that would agree with your assessment. There is no question, none whatsoever, among legitimate scientists that the current climate shift is due to greenhouse gases. As for the Gulf Stream, please read one of many recent articles by well regarded oceanographers that explain the Gulf Stream's thermal "tipping point".Velo Orangehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02835615331417822722noreply@blogger.com